IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
Morning Note September 7, 2016

Untitled

Wed, Sept 07, 16

 

SPX Down, Dollar Down, Crude Down

Prior session’s US non-mfg. ISM hit it’s lowest level in six years (51.4 vs. 54.9 exp.). To make things worst, ISM mfg. printed at six months lows as US manufactures continue to struggle from weak business spending and uncertainty in the global outlook. Here is a chart to complete ignore-

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Morning Note September 6, 2016

Untitled

Tues, Sept 06, 16

 

SPX Flat, Dollar Down, Crude Down

While Wall Street was on holiday prior session, the oil market turned heads with headlines suggesting Saud/Russia freeze deal. WTI and Brent surged more than +500bps with gains not sustainable after the market realized it was more political jawboning via headlines. The inability to hold these gains on an illiquid day confirms the short squeeze ammo is out of juice. In fact, The Oxford Institute for Energy has a Feb’16 report titled: Russia and Opec Uneasy partners laying out argument of Saudi/Russia oil freeze deal is highly unlikely.

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Morning Note September 2, 2016

Untitled

Fri Sept 02, 16

 

MISS: NONFARM PAYROLLS

The August Payrolls Report will be an important guideline for September’s rate hike probability. Here are the expectations by bank:

  • JPM +150k
  • Deutche Bank +160k
  • UBS +160K
  • Goldman +165k
  • Citi +170k
  • Wells +176k
  • BofA 180k
  • MS +185k
  • UBS +200k
  • Barclays +200k
  • Nomura +200k
  • CS +200k
  • SocGen +225k
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Morning Note September 1, 2016

Untitled

Thursday Sept 01, 16

 

US Futures Up, Dollar Flat, & Oil Down

Over in the US, the main story has been the recent decline in crude following a bearish EIA report prior session. The report indicated a +2.276m build in stockpiles with a modest gasoline and build in distillates. Price action of both API and EIA reports coupled with unfavorable supply comments from OPEC has sent WTI spiraling in recent sessions from the 48 handle to now probing in the 44 level. DOE Inventory plus crude product inventory soars above 1.4 Billion barrels for the first time ever. This is 40% above the 25-year normal average. Insiders at Shell and ConocoPhillips management teams now stress a 2017 rebalance. The truth emerges that the EIA lied about “overestimated” crude and gasoline demand in the 1h16 by 16%. On watch is China’s SPR with reports of full or near capacity. JPM estimates that China’s SPR demand was near 1mm bpd. This could spell a global demand decline in the near term that would be detrimental to crude’s price. Forex concerns still remain as dollar strengthens and CAD/USD continues it’s tumble.

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Morning Note August 31, 2016

Untitled

Wed, Aug 31, 16

 

US Futures Flat, Dollar Stalls, & Oil Down

S&P futures continue a volume less rotation of 2175.5 in the overnight session. Global markets are mixed from Asia to Europe. US Dollar strength is now probing into the 96 handle plaguing global commodities. Bloomberg’s commodity index fell prior session for the 5th straight day with all 24 major commodity futures in the red.

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Morning Note August 30, 2016

Untitled

Tues, Aug 30, 16

 

US Futures Flat, Dollar Up, & Oil Up

US Index futures are flat in the pre-US cash session as overnight markets are relatively quiet. Fed’s Fisher releases statements this morning, but the market’s reaction is mute. Here is a summary of his statements:

  • FED’S FISCHER/BBGTV: YOU CAN’T SAY ONE AND DONE, CHOOSE PACE
  • FISCHER: PACE OF RATE HIKES DEPEND ON DATA
  • FISCHER: ECON PESSIMISM ABOUT GROWTH, LARGELY PRODUCTIVITY
  • FISCHER: CAPITAL MARKETS OF THE WORLD MORE INTERCONNECTED
  • FISCHER: FED TAKES INTO ACCOUNT FINANCIAL MARKET POSITIONS
  • FISCHER: LEARNED C BANKS DOING NEG RATES THINK THEY ARE WORKING
  • FISCHER: NEGATIVE RATES DIFFICULT FOR SAVERS
  • FISCHER: US ECONOMY GROWING AROUND 2%, PRODUCTIVITY LOW
  • FISCHER: HAVE SEEN APPRECIATION OF USD, NEAR FULL EMPLOYMENT
  • FISCHER: STRONGER US $ HAS HAD IMPACT ON INFLATION
  • FISCHER: FED HAS TO DEAL WITH THE WORLD AS IT IS
  • FISCHER: PROPPING UP YELLEN IS NOT SOMETHING SHE NEEDS
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Morning Note August 29, 2016

Untitled

Monday, Aug 29, 16

 

US Futures flat, Dollar Advance, & Oil Down

US index futures are flat in the pre-US cash session following Jackson Hole conference last Friday. The US Dollar has advanced more than +157bps to the high 95 handle following senior FED officials indicating US interest Rate hikes near term. The Rate Hike probability for 2016 jumped to 42% from 22% in the last week. The vibrations of an advancing dollar can be felt in commodities, European Equities, Emerging Markets, Commodity FX, and China devaluation threat.

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Morning Notes will Resume August 29, 2016.
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Morning Note August 24, 2016

Untitled

Wed, Aug 24, 16

 

US Futures flat, Dollar Support, & Oil Down

US Futures are flat in the pre-US session as light-trading volume continues. The dollar finds support in the mid-94 handle ahead of Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech. Oil is down on OPEC comments plus the API report indicating large builds in crude.

Markets are idol for Yellen’s guidance on Friday at the Jackson Hole Summit. In Post-Brexit Terms, the SPX has remained dull without a +/- 1% session. Digestion of new market generated information via Yellen’s speech will certainty lead to Forex, Yields, Commodity, and risk assets fluctuation in an aggressive tone. Ahead of the summit, trends are developing such as the DXY finding support and now advancing to the high 94 handle. Emerging Markets (ETF:EEM) found aggressive sellers prior session producing a bearish daily candle. Commodity linked forex is under pressure as the DXY strengthens adding downward pressure to energy and metals. UST Yields remain boxed since July, but have noticed short dated yields <UST10Y are attempting to move upward, but UST30Y is declining. The spread of UST Yields verse US Equity index remains wide. Our focus on the 2s30s Spread verse US Financials remains dangerously wide and should receive caution. The SPY/TLT Ratio is at resistance from the late July timeframe.

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Morning Note August 23, 2016

Untitled

Tues, Aug 23, 16

 

US Futures up, Dollar Suppressed, & Oil Suppressed

The main event in the past 24 hours has been the crude rally hitting resistance. The early August OPEC forced short cover advanced price nearly +25% (39-49). Resistance has been developing on a technical standpoint of buyers are becoming exhausted, as well a new tranche of sour fundamental developments. New market-generated information pertaining to Chinese fuel exports, more Iraqi, and Nigerian exports have plagued the market. US Rig counts continue an ascending trajectory with US production ticking up. US DUC completion and the drilling of new wells are changing the production outlook with the expectation of production to increase in the 2H16 time block. Over in Libya, BBG reports: Hellas tanker carrying 420k bbl of crude, unable to unload at Zawiya refinery in Libya because storage space insufficient. Artic reports: Crude Tankers Reducing Speeds as Earnings Weaken. Latest daily technical setups on /RB & /HO have indicated shooting stars or bearish setups in the pre-US cash session. Prior session, Genscape Cushing inventory: -187,197 bbls in week ended Aug.19. All eyes on after hours API 430pm data.

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