Monday, March 28, 16
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +17bps
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +118ps
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -48bps DAX -97bps
Behind Friday’s GDP numbers, corporate profits have decreased consecutively for the third quarter. FACTSET’s 1Q forecasts earnings decline at -8.4%, and if the index is confirmed at a decline, it will mark the first time 4 consecutive quarters Y/Y decline since 4Q08. Atlanta FED revised their 1Q GDP to 1.4%, down from 1.9%. We’ve noticed elevated stress levels in Kansas, Cleveland and St. Louis FED districts. Total Business Inventories to sales Ratio has printed Oct’08 highs. Auto sales across the US are in a bear flag, as 20-year delinquency rates print. The largest ever jump in retail funds in Jan’16 coming in at 18.6%, as Investors Park their cash away from the casino stock market. Wilshire 5000 rounding a top with successive lower highs and lower lows. The US is fully exposed to the 100-year commodity super cycle, which has hit an unfair high (6 years to produce) and currently reverting, during the time US industrial production is rounding a top. The almighty consumer in retail and food sales have flat lined from last summer, as well as imports from Japan/China are lackluster. Where is the consumer or most importantly where is the discretionary spending from cheap oil? Perhaps servicing debt.