IBB
309.31
-0.27
-0.09%
 
AAPL
161.6
+1.75
+1.09%
 
TVIX
17.05
-0.24
-1.39%
 
XIV
84.56
0.00
N/A%
 
TNA
51.92
-1.24
-2.33%
 
TZA
17.3
+0.41
+2.43%
 
UVXY
31.23
-0.46
-1.45%
 
NASDAQ
6333.013
-7.219
-0.114%
 
S&P500
2464.61
-1.23
-0.05%
 
NYSE
11843.48
-12.58
-0.11%
 
IBB
309.31
-0.27
-0.09%
 
AAPL
161.6
+1.75
+1.09%
 
TVIX
17.05
-0.24
-1.39%
 
XIV
84.56
0.00
N/A%
 
TNA
51.92
-1.24
-2.33%
 
TZA
17.3
+0.41
+2.43%
 
UVXY
31.23
-0.46
-1.45%
 
NASDAQ
6333.013
-7.219
-0.114%
 
S&P500
2464.61
-1.23
-0.05%
 
NYSE
11843.48
-12.58
-0.11%
 
Morning Note February 25, 2016

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Morning Note-

Thur, Feb 25, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -4bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +127bps

08:45ET                                          Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +126bps DAX +86bps

 

Overnight China Markets crashed, Japan advances, as well as Europe advances. That is the vibe of the Pre- G20 meeting as it’s host country: China continues a rout not seen in a month. Typical comments out of Japan from Kuroda defending NIRP, meanwhile Japanese markets in a post-NIRP era have seen dramatic declines. Apparent this morning, normal coefficient correlations to US Equities have dissipated in preparation to G20. Last week’s OPEX rally short cover advanced US Equities in an unstable structure. The resistance on the advancement is a major 1.414 extension of the entire bull cycle at SPY 195. Markets are testing this level on a non-linear timeline of 4 days. If a rejection of this level occurs expect a reversion to 189.50, then fill the 187 window. If the 1.414 extension is successfully on the upside, a migration to the upper distribution of the bi modal will be seen. Markets at crossroads.

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Morning Note February 24, 2016

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Morning Note-

WED, Feb 24, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -93bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei -94bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:   [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -128bps DAX -228bps

 

Last week’s OPEX and Short Cover Rally in US-Equities had an advancement that rejected the 1.414 extension of the entire bull cycle. As we’ve noted, the structure of the rally in US-Equities was unstable due to the composition of how the market moved. Our analogy would be constructing a home without a sturdy foundation. The cracks in the foundation were so obvious that others such as Geneva Swiss Bank and Tom DeMark publicly voiced their concern of the recent advancement. SWFs have been the largest hurdle in US Equities as liquidity is not a constant variable, its highly conditional, thus explaining the volatility. The liquidity floor sits on Fib extensions 1.272 and as of recently a liquidity hole took SPX underneath such level, but a saving grace from OPEC in a well-timed manner saved markets from the inevitable clearing process. Markets are at a cross roads, do we open door number 1 (Market Clearing) or door number 2 (FED).

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Morning Note February 23, 2016

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Morning Note-

Tues, Feb 23, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:

[Stockboardasset] S&P futures -30bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:

[Stockboardasset] Nikkei -40bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:

[Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -30bps DAX -55bps

 

Last evening we brushed up on our Kondratieff wave reading to determine the winter cycle could be here. The winter wave has characteristics of excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation, commodity deflation, geopolitical risk and an economic recession. Monetary policies by the FED in the form of QE have protected the US economy from the inevitable clearing process.

Prior Session, the global stage of economies experienced a terrible miss on manufacturing, as well as the US. The US Manufacturing PMI was 51 vs. 52 (expected). The world’s largest minor BHP reported a massive profit drop and for the first time in 15 years slashed their dividend. BHP echoed what many of economist point out of slower overall growth in China. Not to mention Standard Chartered, the Asian focused lender reported a pre tax loss of $1.5 billion in FY’15, down from a profit of $4.2 billion prior year. This was the first annual loss since 1989. Weakness in Chinese equities was also seen overnight.

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Morning Note February 22, 2016

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Morning Note-

Mon, Feb 22, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +113bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +245bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +156bps DAX +202bps

 

Over the weekend, London’s Mayor Boris Johnson led to Sunday evenings collapse of the GBPUSD after he voiced his concern of supporting “Brexit”. The GBPUSD experienced it’s worst drop in many years, as EU frets the potential loss of it’s critical member. Around the globe, a confluence of manufacturing data showed a bleak forecast of future growth. From the Eurozone to Asia the manufacturing miss on data points to further weakness in coming months. Despite the global slowdown, BOJ still inspired the USDJPY spike driving global equities in an upward trajectory, and even breaking the EUREX. We were astonished to learn in the first 2 months, Chinese loan creation topped $1 Trillion. We assume Chinese firms will do what they do best and continue stockpiling commodities as Iron Ore touches $50 since EOY’15. The bad news is good news gang is back as Eurozone and Asia markets are marginally up. Global equities are sustaining the 11 session up trend leading into an important supply line. We note, recent movements in global equities are artificial and should warrant caution. US Equities have rallied in a short cover spree leading up to OPEX last week. The structure of the short cover is unsustainable and should rotate back into balance area of the high 180s on SPY.

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Morning Note February 19, 2016

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Morning Note-

Fri, Feb 19, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +22bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +277bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -53bps DAX +118bps

 

We warned yesterday of the artificialness of the global equity index recent advancement as central bank members generate conversation to manipulate market participants perception of reality. FED Williams was the recent member to speak as he told market, we can’t pull the rug out from the economy right now. Over the course of this week, mutable FED members have acknowledge WTI and USD are generating woes for the US economy. The Global Equity Index is comprised of major markets around the world have halted the 5 day advancement forming an evening star. We believe there will be a retracement of the recent advancement. US Markets have advance near +700bps in a week’s time as forced short covering was produced by OPEC. Coincidently, the SPX tested and rejected 1.272 extensions of the entire bull cycle as support. We learned our markets continue to be highly manipulative as the overseers of the wave function spew nonsense i.e. OPEC. OPEC’s perfect placement of their comments at 26 and range bound of 30 via comments depicts pure manipulation. 4% of the global producers <35 will be below breakeven as the likely hood of WTI rotating the low 30s for an extended period of time is high. We do see improving fundamentals in place for 2H16 in the US Rebalancing, but a dark spot in the refinery sector. Just recently, the market saw the fire sale of WTI from 30-26 as PSX dumped Cushing for immediate delivery. Rumors of an OPEC emergency meeting in the March Timeframe.

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Morning Note February 18, 2016

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Morning Note-

Thur, Feb 18, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +22bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +277bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:   [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -53bps DAX +118bps

 

 

Global equities continue their advancement in the fifth straight session as late January prices have been reached. Our guess, the recent price action is artificial by central banks. We should not forget global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Overnight, FED Bullard commented on Decmember’15 rate hikes weren’t a mistake. He added WTI and the dollar prices continue to hurt the US economy. We believe a delay of the March rate hike as central banks recognize recent global market price action.

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Morning Note February 17, 2016

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Morning Note-

Wed, Feb 17, 16

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +170bps

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +56bps

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +112bps DAX -129bps

 

Global equities in the past four sessions have sustained a countertrend rather than the normal rout. The rout has been in response to the FED’s tightening program starting in Dec’15. Global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Overnight, the US FED member Rosengren spoke in a dovish tone underlining the dollar rise, oil falling, depressed inflation, and EM woes. In his words, rate hikes should be “unhurried” if US inflation is slower than expected. FED minutes will be released 2pm est. today, as well as 6pm est. James Bullard will speak.

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Morning Note February 16, 2016

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Morning Note-

Tues, Feb 16, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +200bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +293bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +62bps DAX -65bps

 

Global equities remain in a sustained rout as global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Front and center is OPEC announcing a production freeze with its major producers. Rumors over the past week were calling for production cuts, which spiked WTI from the 26 to 31 handle. WTI is stabilizing as schizophrenic Goldman Sachs revises their WTI to not much downside is left. US Equities revive their high correlation to WTI .925 on a 300min scale. Unprecedented geopolitics are unfolding as the Turkish Military is shelling into Syria. The Saudi’s are conducting the largest military drill in the Middle East called North Thunder involving more than 20 countries. How timely, the Middle East nations are standing behind Saudi Arabia as the Russian’s and Assad run a much in Syria advancing the most in the multi year conflict.

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Morning Note February 12, 2016

Morning Note-

Fri, Feb 12, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -123bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei 484bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +168bps DAX +138bps

 

Global Equities maintain the 308th day of a sustained rout as global economies are fighting a commodity, currency and interest rate war. Japan’s markets are in chaos Post-NIRP. USDJPY has fallen -882bps, as well as JPN22 -1747bps from NIRP-Day highs. Excessive pessimism has Gov’t and BOJ commenting overtime to curb selling. Watch for exhaustion of sellers with an unfair low as central bankers and gov’t will artificially hammer out lows. Heading into the weekend, China has a series of data points: M0, M1, and M2 supply on deck. We may also get China trade balance and Japan 4Q15 GDP early next week. Central Bankers in Asia are working overtime as market participants like you and I question their policies. We believe BOJ will expand their easing program in the March, and perhaps PBOC will do the same in the near term.

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Morning Note February 9, 2016

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Morning Note-

Tues, Feb 9, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -56bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei 500bps Hang Seng Closed

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -50bps DAX -100bps

 

Today’s the 305th day of a sustained global equity rout. The 111th day of a descending contracting wedge, with an APEX 2-10-16. Notable for a reversal, the global equity index remains below the wedge under pressure due to WTI. WTI coefficient correlation to global equities has increased this week as the China Lunar New Year continues. Despite most Asian markets closed for the week, JPN225 manages to crash in the overnight, as Europe remains flat. US Futures remains flat with the highly correlated WTI up marginally. Logistical companies such as Trucking have seen a +1500bps move in FY’16, but remain in focus as Google trends signals the keyword “recession” spiked to Oct’12 highs.

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