IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
Morning Note February 19, 2016

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Morning Note-

Fri, Feb 19, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +22bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +277bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -53bps DAX +118bps

 

We warned yesterday of the artificialness of the global equity index recent advancement as central bank members generate conversation to manipulate market participants perception of reality. FED Williams was the recent member to speak as he told market, we can’t pull the rug out from the economy right now. Over the course of this week, mutable FED members have acknowledge WTI and USD are generating woes for the US economy. The Global Equity Index is comprised of major markets around the world have halted the 5 day advancement forming an evening star. We believe there will be a retracement of the recent advancement. US Markets have advance near +700bps in a week’s time as forced short covering was produced by OPEC. Coincidently, the SPX tested and rejected 1.272 extensions of the entire bull cycle as support. We learned our markets continue to be highly manipulative as the overseers of the wave function spew nonsense i.e. OPEC. OPEC’s perfect placement of their comments at 26 and range bound of 30 via comments depicts pure manipulation. 4% of the global producers <35 will be below breakeven as the likely hood of WTI rotating the low 30s for an extended period of time is high. We do see improving fundamentals in place for 2H16 in the US Rebalancing, but a dark spot in the refinery sector. Just recently, the market saw the fire sale of WTI from 30-26 as PSX dumped Cushing for immediate delivery. Rumors of an OPEC emergency meeting in the March Timeframe.

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Morning Note February 18, 2016

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Morning Note-

Thur, Feb 18, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +22bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +277bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:   [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -53bps DAX +118bps

 

 

Global equities continue their advancement in the fifth straight session as late January prices have been reached. Our guess, the recent price action is artificial by central banks. We should not forget global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Overnight, FED Bullard commented on Decmember’15 rate hikes weren’t a mistake. He added WTI and the dollar prices continue to hurt the US economy. We believe a delay of the March rate hike as central banks recognize recent global market price action.

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Morning Note February 17, 2016

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Morning Note-

Wed, Feb 17, 16

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +170bps

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +56bps

08:50 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +112bps DAX -129bps

 

Global equities in the past four sessions have sustained a countertrend rather than the normal rout. The rout has been in response to the FED’s tightening program starting in Dec’15. Global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Overnight, the US FED member Rosengren spoke in a dovish tone underlining the dollar rise, oil falling, depressed inflation, and EM woes. In his words, rate hikes should be “unhurried” if US inflation is slower than expected. FED minutes will be released 2pm est. today, as well as 6pm est. James Bullard will speak.

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Morning Note February 16, 2016

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Morning Note-

Tues, Feb 16, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +200bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +293bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +62bps DAX -65bps

 

Global equities remain in a sustained rout as global economies are fighting a commodity, currency, and interest rate war. Front and center is OPEC announcing a production freeze with its major producers. Rumors over the past week were calling for production cuts, which spiked WTI from the 26 to 31 handle. WTI is stabilizing as schizophrenic Goldman Sachs revises their WTI to not much downside is left. US Equities revive their high correlation to WTI .925 on a 300min scale. Unprecedented geopolitics are unfolding as the Turkish Military is shelling into Syria. The Saudi’s are conducting the largest military drill in the Middle East called North Thunder involving more than 20 countries. How timely, the Middle East nations are standing behind Saudi Arabia as the Russian’s and Assad run a much in Syria advancing the most in the multi year conflict.

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Morning Note February 12, 2016

Morning Note-

Fri, Feb 12, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -123bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei 484bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 +168bps DAX +138bps

 

Global Equities maintain the 308th day of a sustained rout as global economies are fighting a commodity, currency and interest rate war. Japan’s markets are in chaos Post-NIRP. USDJPY has fallen -882bps, as well as JPN22 -1747bps from NIRP-Day highs. Excessive pessimism has Gov’t and BOJ commenting overtime to curb selling. Watch for exhaustion of sellers with an unfair low as central bankers and gov’t will artificially hammer out lows. Heading into the weekend, China has a series of data points: M0, M1, and M2 supply on deck. We may also get China trade balance and Japan 4Q15 GDP early next week. Central Bankers in Asia are working overtime as market participants like you and I question their policies. We believe BOJ will expand their easing program in the March, and perhaps PBOC will do the same in the near term.

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Morning Note February 9, 2016

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Morning Note-

Tues, Feb 9, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -56bps

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei 500bps Hang Seng Closed

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -50bps DAX -100bps

 

Today’s the 305th day of a sustained global equity rout. The 111th day of a descending contracting wedge, with an APEX 2-10-16. Notable for a reversal, the global equity index remains below the wedge under pressure due to WTI. WTI coefficient correlation to global equities has increased this week as the China Lunar New Year continues. Despite most Asian markets closed for the week, JPN225 manages to crash in the overnight, as Europe remains flat. US Futures remains flat with the highly correlated WTI up marginally. Logistical companies such as Trucking have seen a +1500bps move in FY’16, but remain in focus as Google trends signals the keyword “recession” spiked to Oct’12 highs.

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Morning Note February 8, 2016

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Morning Note-

Mon, Feb 8, 16

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -1.53%

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset] Nikkei FLAT Hang Seng Closed

08:45 ET                                         Update:  [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -2.14% DAX -2.51%

Today’s the 304th day of a sustained global equity rout. The 103nd day of a descending contracting wedge, that is notable for a bullish reversal with an APEX in early 2H16, there is still more downside to come. Global equities tend to lead-in to the supply line of the geometrical formation (wedge) for 2-3 weeks, and then step down. Our descriptive model of global equities depicts the temporary bottom continues in the 19th day. So, as we know, time is borrowed at this point. China’s Lunar New Year starts this week, Hong Kong Mon-Wed, and Singapore is closed Mon-Tues.

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