IBB
304.68
+0.62
+0.20%
 
AAPL
157.21
-0.29
-0.18%
 
TVIX
19.54
-1.71
-8.05%
 
XIV
77.1
+3.21
+4.34%
 
TNA
48.99
-0.03
-0.06%
 
TZA
18.27
0.00
0.00%
 
UVXY
35.87
-3.1
-7.95%
 
NASDAQ
6213.127
-3.399
-0.0547%
 
S&P500
2428.37
+2.82
+0.12%
 
NYSE
11719.267
+19.436
+0.1661%
 
IBB
304.68
+0.62
+0.20%
 
AAPL
157.21
-0.29
-0.18%
 
TVIX
19.54
-1.71
-8.05%
 
XIV
77.1
+3.21
+4.34%
 
TNA
48.99
-0.03
-0.06%
 
TZA
18.27
0.00
0.00%
 
UVXY
35.87
-3.1
-7.95%
 
NASDAQ
6213.127
-3.399
-0.0547%
 
S&P500
2428.37
+2.82
+0.12%
 
NYSE
11719.267
+19.436
+0.1661%
 
Morning Note August 22, 2016

Untitled

Mon, Aug 22, 16

 

US Futures Decline, US Dollar Bounces, and Crude Under-Pressure

After an abundance of FED Speak plus the FOMC minutes last week. US Futures are under pressure in the pre US cash session with an advancing dollar to the high 94 handle. Recent months, dollar appreciation has worried the FED. Recent action by the FED has capped the advancement in the 97 handle and forced a market to sell into the 94 support. The FED has even attempted to use vocal commands in attempt to manipulate Sept/Dec rate hike odds. Even Dudley comments last week indicating UST10Y Treasury Yields are too low given the circumstance in attempt to generate a move that would satisfy the FED.

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Morning Note August 19.2016
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Morning Note August 18, 2016
Thur, Aug 18, 16

Global Equities under-pressure post FED Minutes

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Morning Note August 16, 2016

Untitled

Tues, Aug 16, 16

FED Williams’ dovish paper pushes down dollar & global equities.

Overnight, dovish FED William’s jawbones the forex market via his monetary policy paper. The paper suggests lower rates for longer which crippled the DXY -100bps to the mid-94 handle. Commodities such as energy, copper, gold, and silver caught a bid in response. Global Equities as a whole are under pressure with market stress stemming from Japan.

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Morning Note August 15, 2016

Education

Mon, Aug 15, 16

Global Stocks uplifted by advertisement of Russia/Saudi Oil Talks.

US Futures (/ES +20bps) are modestly higher following comments by Russia that it may join Saudi Arabia in limiting production. As noted, this is the third OPEC News cycle for the 2016 FY in advertising the market. This weeks oil schedule will include Genscape, API, EIA, Rig Counts, and perhaps more comments in the OPEC News cycle. Overall our stance is an intermediate counter-wave with an overall bearish stance due to the physical side of the market extending into products.

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Morning Note August 5, 2016

Education

Fri, Aug 05, 16

All eyes on the on today’s NFP report , where the consensus expects a 180k gain. DB’s LaVorgna NFP forecast remains at 150k on a post ADP employment printing at 179k. Global markets paint a mixed picture awaiting for the NFP data, but one day after the BOE literally repeated a Draghi by throwing the “Kitchen Sink”. The theme of the market is the hope that central banks can counter downside to growth, but come on we’ve heard that before. To counter non-believers, the central banks have been on an aggressive advertisement program in attract new participants to the auction. Declining volume and conditional liquidity plagues global markets. For instance, WTI stepping into a technical bear cycle with a -22% liquidity opening up in a few weeks is evident that this could happen in assets. Central Banks especially the BOK & ECB are expanding balance sheets at a tune of $180bn per month. Even JPM’s Quant Kolanovic openly says central banks are buying stocks (shocking). It’s obvious that Central Bank Fatigue is starting to plague the animal spirits of the market.

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Morning Note August 4, 2016

Education

Wed, Aug 04, 16

Quiet session in the overnight as the market braced for the BOE decision. In the 7am, the BOE delivered rate cuts, <£10 billion corporate bond purchases, and £435 billion asset purchase program. UK Government Bond 10 YR Yield crashes to record lows of .636. The GBPUSD has been smashed to the 1.31 level. The EURUSD continues to contract in the low 1.11 handle. On the equity side, the FTSE adds +100bps on the decision and nearly +1800bps from Brexit Vote low.

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Morning Note August 3, 2016

Education

Tues, Aug 03, 16

I heard a great quote in the overnight session from Muchael Hewson at CMC London, “Investors are slowly realizing that with every spin of the central bank policy chamber the magazine is getting emptier”. That is precisely what we’ve seen this week from the RBA cut inducing a rallying AUDUSD +200bps, along with ASX declining 300bps. Precedents of the RBA cut would only imply that this Thursday’s BOE decision will under-deliver. Frankly, the BOJ is ruining central bank credibility for all after it’s latest PR stunt in July with Bernanke promising 28 trillion Yen stimulus, but delivering ¼ of the amount. Lately, figures show the expansion of global central banks balance sheets is at a tune of $180 billion per month. What’s more interesting is the US Money Base is declining implying that FED is slowly unwinding as global central banks expand.

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Morning Note August 2, 2016

Education

Fri, Aug 02, 16

In the overnight session, the BOJ and RBA have underwhelmed market participants in response to stimulus and or rate cut packages. Let’s start with the BOJ, where their modo is speak loudly but carry a small stick. In fact, the BOJ actual new spending stimulus will only be a quarter of the 28 trillion yen. In response, the USD/JPY was slammed to the 101 handle as the YEN strengthen against all it’s peers. JP10Y yield strengthen on fear of the BOJ phasing out QE. Renewed selling pressure was issued in the Nikkei with a potential downside target -20% discount of the 12918 level. On a laughable note, the BOJ plans to drop 2-yr time frame for it’s 2% target reports the Nikkei. JPM comes out bashing Japan seeing no risk on opportunities. God bless Kuroda.

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Morning Note August 1, 2016

Education

Fri, Aug 01, 16

US Media Blackout continues at Turkey’s Incirlik NATO air base home to US Nuclear Weapons. Nearly 7,000 security forces with some armored vehicles surround the facility. The move to surround the base comes weeks after a failed coup. Turkey’s minister for the EU has downplayed the situation saying this is a regular security check. FITCH released a statement specifying the credit profile of Turkey to be at risk. Turkey’s Central Bank has provided liquidity to the Lira lifting to .33413 level nearly +300bps from the low of .32 handle. Dip buyers have been in I-SHARES: TUR, but we say it’s to early to understand the full repercussions of the attempted coup, as well as weekend developments.

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