MACRO MORNING NOTE APRIL 07, 2017
SPX Down, DXY Up, WTI Up
SBA’s Alastair Williamson concludes the Macro Morning Note from Baltimore, Maryland.
Incredible developments overnight, where President Trump has launched 59 Tomahawk cruise-missiles into Syria. Pentagon: “Initial indications are that this strike has severely damaged or destroyed Syrian aircraft and support infrastructure”. In response, Putin: Syria Strikes “Cripple US-Russia Relations”; Deploys Cruise Missile Frigate To Syria. Russian defense ministry says U.S. strikes on Syria air base had “extremely low” military effectiveness – RTRS. Russia Says Only 23 Out of 59 U.S. Missiles Hit Targets: IFX.
via Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
The Deep State already run everything – when it comes to foreign policy, economics, politics and the mainstream narrative that is meant to set & sync headlines, clocks and consumer habits around the world.
War is brewing, as Trump hinted strongly in his upstart presidential campaign, but it will come, ultimately, at the terms of the long-running organ that actually steers U.S. policy.
After a very dubious “chemical attack” in Syria to stir the pot (the White Helmets did not even use gloves when picking up, touching and treating supposedly contaminated children), it is clear that war could erupt overnight with any number of middle eastern ‘enemies,’ or with North Korea, Russia or just about anyone else.
And one narrative that has been almost constant from the establishment power base and their media lapdogs during the last cycle has been dogging Russia in anyway it can – from baseless hacking accusations, to controversial sanctions talks, to attributing ultimate responsibility for chemical warfare attacks.
One can clearly see that a fight is being picked. If the story doesn’t fit, they’ll force it, or just find another excuse.
This, in short, is why the well respected Paul Craig Roberts says we are one step closer to “going poof” – it is three steps back to the thermonuclear cold war, only this time the leaders aren’t even attempting to work it out diplomatically.
Combine all the mistrust, aggression and attempts to conflate conflicts into a larger disaster. The debt situation, the economics and the social indicators are all abysmal and depressing. The morale of the country has devolved, and mutated strangely with the pockets of information and counter-information that reside online. And there are those who’d prefer to torch things off, collect on military industrial contracts during prolonged war, and start things over when people have sobered up to the grim new realities. These will be trying times.
US Markets responded with panic selling in the dollar, SPX500, and a massive bid for bonds as UST Yields were crushed. Oil probed higher into the 52 handle following the developments. Almost immediately a V-shape dip occurred where large market overseers were able to to stem additional losses.
Overall idea of the US reflation trade is the ratcheting down post March rate hike and Trump’s failed healthcare bill. The trade has stalled for nearly 4-5 months as disappointment in Trump starts to trickle in. Expectations are high for Trump and with the deep state forcing an uphill battle in his every move, the healthcare bill failure serves as a litmus test for tax reform.
Over in Japan, multi session ratchet down in the Nikkei225 and USD/JPY continue with acceleration in downside overnight through US Act of Aggression towards Syria. V-shape recovery occurred shortly after the liquidation.
Same deal in Europe, traders panic bid in bonds sending yields lower. Regional equity indexes dipped on the US Act of Aggression, then V-shape recoveries. UKOIL probes the 55 handle following geopolitical risk flare up in Syria.
Global 10Y Gov’t yields under pressure in recent months sliding to the downside.
In response to the US Act of Aggression towards Syria. Dollar demand flourishes as the EUR/USD breaks critical floor 1.063s.
Important theme is dollar demand flourishes as the EUR/USD breaks important floor 1.063s. USD/JPY lower highs over the week probes into the 110 handle. Sterling subsides into the 1.24 handle. Overall, dollar demand is the response post US Act of Aggression towards Syria.
In the commodity complex, WTI surges in response to the US Act of Aggression over the 52 handle. Copper /HG! in a liquidation -100bps in the past 30mins to the low 2.60 level. Precious metals bid hard Gold and Silver following the events overnight. Soft Agri such as Corn, sugar, soybeans, and wheat continue deflationary trends extending from March.
SPX monthly/weekly R2 2398 rejection with downside projections R1 2287
UST10Y monthly/weekly R1 2.63 rejection setting up for pivot 2.13 reversion
DXY monthly/weekly R1 103.74 to pivot 99.26 bracket. Wait for direction.
WTI monthly/weekly R1 55 overhead supply unlocked with pivot 44.81 downside projections.
Bonus: Recap this week includes the Federal Reserve calling US Stock Markets a bubble, Jamie Dimon bashes US economy, and the US launches Missiles into Syria. Scenario laid out is SPX500 topping with a 90’s Nikkei225 crash.