2 HVNs You Should Watch
SPX Trend Line of month long rally has violated to the downside. Price action will be capped with 2050HVN-1990HVN. The game of ping is next between HVNs, as a confused market revalues itself. We wait for a major larger imbalance, and perhaps triggers such as 1Q earnings, WTI, CNY devalue, or non-economic factors may come into the lime light.
Will HY Credit Spreads Continue March Forward?
Wave of Energy companies coupon payments are due this Friday, April 15th, and the 30th.
HY Credit Spreads will be on watch
Monday, March 28, 16
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +17bps
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +118ps
08:45 ET Update: [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -48bps DAX -97bps
Behind Friday’s GDP numbers, corporate profits have decreased consecutively for the third quarter. FACTSET’s 1Q forecasts earnings decline at -8.4%, and if the index is confirmed at a decline, it will mark the first time 4 consecutive quarters Y/Y decline since 4Q08. Atlanta FED revised their 1Q GDP to 1.4%, down from 1.9%. We’ve noticed elevated stress levels in Kansas, Cleveland and St. Louis FED districts. Total Business Inventories to sales Ratio has printed Oct’08 highs. Auto sales across the US are in a bear flag, as 20-year delinquency rates print. The largest ever jump in retail funds in Jan’16 coming in at 18.6%, as Investors Park their cash away from the casino stock market. Wilshire 5000 rounding a top with successive lower highs and lower lows. The US is fully exposed to the 100-year commodity super cycle, which has hit an unfair high (6 years to produce) and currently reverting, during the time US industrial production is rounding a top. The almighty consumer in retail and food sales have flat lined from last summer, as well as imports from Japan/China are lackluster. Where is the consumer or most importantly where is the discretionary spending from cheap oil? Perhaps servicing debt.