IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
IBB
338.12
+1.28
+0.38%
 
AAPL
160.47
+0.59
+0.37%
 
TVIX
8.86
+0.03
+0.34%
 
XIV
109.53
-0.15
-0.14%
 
TNA
65.66
-0.59
-0.89%
 
TZA
13.47
+0.12
+0.90%
 
UVXY
16.22
+0.08
+0.50%
 
NASDAQ
6623.657
-0.348
-0.0052%
 
S&P500
2559.36
+1.72
+0.07%
 
NYSE
12349.97
-9.55
-0.08%
 
-57% Revision in 1Q16 GDP Atlanta (in a week)

-57% Revision in 1Q16 GDP Atlanta 

Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.57.37 AM Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.57.42 AM

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2 HVNs You Should Watch

2 HVNs You Should Watch 

SPX Trend Line of month long rally has violated to the downside. Price action will be capped with 2050HVN-1990HVN. The game of ping is next between HVNs, as a confused market revalues itself. We wait for a major larger imbalance, and perhaps triggers such as 1Q earnings, WTI, CNY devalue, or non-economic factors may come into the lime light. Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.46.02 AM

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Will HY Credit Spreads Continue March Forward?

Will HY Credit Spreads Continue March Forward? 

Slew of Oil and Gas coupon payments next month will certainly add pressure to HY bond market. HYG, CORP, and JNK are excellent feelers when compared to equities of stress. Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.43.54 AM

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WTI 300min TrendLine Failure. Reversion Imminent

WTI 300min TrendLine Failure. Reversion Imminent to POC

Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.36.14 AM

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Wave of Energy Companies Coupon Payments due (Friday)

Wave of Energy companies coupon payments are due this Friday, April 15th, and the 30th. 

Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.31.36 AM

HY Credit Spreads will be on watch 

Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 10.32.53 AM

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GDPNOW: Alarming Revision Lower Atlanta FED 1Q

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Morning Note March 28, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-03-20 at 11.36.38 AM

Morning Note- 

Monday, March 28, 16

08:45 ET         Update: [Stockboardasset] S&P futures +17bps

08:45 ET         Update: [Stockboardasset] Nikkei +118ps

08:45 ET         Update: [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -48bps DAX -97bps

Behind Friday’s GDP numbers, corporate profits have decreased consecutively for the third quarter. FACTSET’s 1Q forecasts earnings decline at -8.4%, and if the index is confirmed at a decline, it will mark the first time 4 consecutive quarters Y/Y decline since 4Q08. Atlanta FED revised their 1Q GDP to 1.4%, down from 1.9%. We’ve noticed elevated stress levels in Kansas, Cleveland and St. Louis FED districts. Total Business Inventories to sales Ratio has printed Oct’08 highs. Auto sales across the US are in a bear flag, as 20-year delinquency rates print. The largest ever jump in retail funds in Jan’16 coming in at 18.6%, as Investors Park their cash away from the casino stock market. Wilshire 5000 rounding a top with successive lower highs and lower lows. The US is fully exposed to the 100-year commodity super cycle, which has hit an unfair high (6 years to produce) and currently reverting, during the time US industrial production is rounding a top. The almighty consumer in retail and food sales have flat lined from last summer, as well as imports from Japan/China are lackluster. Where is the consumer or most importantly where is the discretionary spending from cheap oil? Perhaps servicing debt.

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ZLB/NIRP

ZLB/NIRP 

A mere 25bps in Dec’15 by the FED rippled fragile markets. Most CentralBanks are in the ZLB or NIRP. IMF,OECD,BIS, and WEF have stark warnings of anemic global growth via Monetary accommodations. Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 8.01.06 PM

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Complete Guide to 1Q16 Valuations

Complete Guide to 1Q16 SPX Valuations

Link-> FactSet Valuations

Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 5.26.59 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 5.27.02 PM

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This can’t end well.

Margin debt decrease, tightening cycle, flatlined money base, and Wilshire 5000 rounding top. This can’t end well.

Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 4.37.27 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 4.37.21 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 4.37.16 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 4.37.07 PM

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