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US East Coast On Alert As Tropical Storm Florence Poised To Strengthen

The 5 pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) report has indicated that the risk for a direct impact from Tropical Storm Florence has increased, although exactly where on the East Coast remains somewhat uncertain.

Residents of the East Coast should be on high alert for Tropical Storm Florence, which is expected to become a hurricane again in the next 12 to 24 hours as it approaches the US.

Still almost 1,800 miles from the Eastern Seaboard, the tropical storm remains 7 to 9 days away from a direct US landfall, according to the NHC. The storm is forecasted to restrengthen this weekend into a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds as it passes 905 miles east-southeast of Bermuda headed West at eight mph with winds sustained at 65 mph.

Mike’s Weather Page has reason to believe that some weather models are indicating an East Coast landfall scenario by Thursday and or Friday of next week.

“Afternoon 12z EURO/GFS ensembles. Both continue the west trend we talked about yesterday. East coast landfall chances increasing each model run. Timing is THU/FRI next week roughly.”

Ben Noll, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, indicates the regional impact could be the Southeast US.

“The latest UKMET ensemble guidance has continued its northward adjustment, sending Florence into the Southeast U.S. like most other model suites. There are a handful of members that show a near-miss recurve.”

Ed Vallee, a meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting, shows the exact path of the storm is uncertain and could hit anywhere from the South East to Mid Atlantic.

“European members do still show a bifurcated solution set with two distinct tracks. Regardless, inland flood threat exists as steering currents look weak over land (if Florence gets there).”

James Wieland, a meteorologist at NBC Palm Beach, has a clear model of the storm reaching Category 4 by Wednesday afternoon off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina.

“5 pm advisory on Florence, westward movement, still forecast to become a major cat 4 hurricane just off the southeast coast by Wednesday. Still too early to tell exactly where or if it will make landfall but preparing is the best thing to do.”

With even more precision, Daniel Johnson, Chief Meteorologist at 47 ABC Salisbury, Maryland, displays a European model of the storm “making landfall as a major hurricane in SC.”

“The European model is farther south with Florence next week, making landfall as a major hurricane in SC, then heading inland. This would be a much better scenario for Delmarva compared to what the GFS is showing. Either way, have that hurricane plan ready.”

If you have not been paying attention, the tropics are extremely busy right now. There could be as many as three named storms in the next several days.

The pipeline is full! Hurricane Florence is likely next week, then Helene and Isaac have moved into the tropical Atlantic, and a couple more tropical waves in Africa are moving west.

While it is certainly not time to press the panic button — by the end of the weekend, meteorologists will have a better grasp of where Florence is headed. As of right now, models show the East Coast could get a pounding.