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Morning Note November 25, 2016
Friday, November 25, 2016

 SPX Flat, Dollar Down, Crude Down

Trumpflation via the dollar and UST yields have stalled for nearly 1.5 sessions. This comes at a period where the dollar has surged to 13-year highs, along with US10Y spike to 2.417. Limited liquidity will be present in this shorten US cash session due to holiday festivities in the United States.

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-34-15-am

Overnight, Asian traders sold the SPX and WTI while placing a bid in bonds. When Europe opened up in the 3am hour, not much enthusiasm ensued.

2016-11-25_08-35-08

Regional equity indexes (CAC,DAX,UKX) remain mixed. FR,ES,IT regional 10-YR bond yields are in an upward trajectory post 6am, meanwhile DE and GB 10-YR regional bond yields are in a downward sloping fashion.

2016-11-25_08-36-56

Starting in Forex, the global dollar shortage has sent DXY to 13 year highs in the 101.90 range in recent sessions. DXY is -72bps from such highs trading in the 101.51 range. On the other hand, EUR/USD pair tests a triple bottom from the 2015 period in the 105 handle. GBP/USD pair is in a counter move post Brexit liquidation. Recent liquidation sent the sterling flash crashing into the 118 handle now trading in the 1.24 range. Over to Asia, where the dollar shortage has sent CNY/USD and CNH/USD to record lows for the cycle has strained the Asian Currencies Index to 7 year lows. Across the South China Sea to Japan where the USD/JPY pair is just shy of the 144 handle with an impressive November squeeze of +1200bps. Commodity currencies such as the CAD and AUD are mixed, but slightly up despite multi year declining trajectories. Over in Turkey, the TRY/USD pair (lira) has tagged record lows on economic and political woes sending their Ishares MSCI <TUR> to 2700 day lows. In India, the cash ban on large denomination has sent the INR/USD to 2013 lows creating economic, political and social chaos. Overall, the dollar shortage theme continues to plague global liquidity.

Global Currency Crisis as dollar shortage wreaks havoc

2016-11-25_08-41-17

BCA Research- The strong dollar is tightening global liquidity conditions, putting the post-election jump in stock prices at risk unless growth accelerates imminently.

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-40-00-am

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, Oct., est. -$59b (prior -$56.5b)
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories m/m, Oct P, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%); Retail Inventories m/m, Oct. (prior 0.3%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Nov. P, est. 54.8 (prior 54.8)

On the subject of global dollar shortage Deutsche Bank AG strategists George Saravelos and Robin Winkler recently wrote, “We expect de-globalization to negatively impact financial markets, particularly the availability of dollar funding. Reserve manager commercial bank dollar deposits are falling. Central bank swap lines can no longer be taken for granted. The potential repatriation of more than a trillion dollars of offshore U.S. corporate earnings could aggravate dollar funding pressure further.”

Analyst Izabella Kaminski recently wrote in the Financial Times Alphaville column that a global dollar shortage “stands to become the most significant destabilizing force in recent times and the most unanticipated global tail-risk.”

Stress in Global Currency-

  • Sweden’s Riksbank eyes digital currency – Financial Times
  • India Scraps 500 and 1,000 Rupee Bank Notes Overnight – BBC
  • India banks overwhelmed after rupee withdrawal – Financial Times
  • Zimbabwe’s Currency Hail Mary – Foreign Policy
  • Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends – SWIFT
  • Global dollar credit: Links to U.S. monetary policy and leverage – BIS
  • The bank/capital market nexus goes global – Hyun Song Shin
  • How Donald Trump Could Exacerbate A Global Dollar Shortage – Bloomberg
  • Dollar shortage alert – Izabella Kaminska – Financial Times Alphaville

Asian Dollar Index plunges to 7 year low verse the dollar.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.50.52 AM.png

US Dollar monthly timeframe, .618 upside penetrated prior session roughly in the 101.70 handle. Our new target is .764 in the 109 handle unless the Fed reverses the trade.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 5.26.56 PM.png

Dollar demand has crushed China’s CNH and CNY with modest outflows in China pouring into BTC/USD. Devaluations of this magnitude have been responsible for global turmoil and massive outflows in the past, but currently decoupled.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 8.06.59 AM.png

Across the pond in Europe, EURO Currency Volatility Index has exploded upwards with an imminent gold cross on the daily. Market participants are preparing for Italy’s Referendum.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:2016-11-24_08-10-39.png

Despite the global dollar shortage, US rate hike probabilities for December’16 are >93.5% inducing more dollar demand and inciting a panic in global bonds.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 7.19.35 AM.png

More bad news in Emerging Markets where bonds are being slaughtered on the back of a dollar shortage making dollar denominated debt harder to service. Hello pending crisis?

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 8.17.00 AM.png

The bond selloff is not limited to emerging growth. This has become a systemic issue across all major global bond markets. Notice the recent equity decoupling from bonds?—Probably won’t end well.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.05.59 AM.png

Meanwhile, UST10Y Treasury Yield <TNX> has surged 82.98% (1.095) from the 1.32 post Brexit. Many think Trumpflation has been responsible for the sudden surge in UST Yields, but that is not the case. Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus speculation was merely the accelerant of momentum over the 1.88 level. What started the trend was global central bank yield curve steepening and tapering first presented by the BOJ in late September 2016. Our upside projections in <TNX> UST10Y is 25.01 or 2.501.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-24_08-25-57.png

MBA Mortgage Applications +5.5, vs -9.2% Purchases +18.8% Refise -3.1%. In 2016, the FED pushed down 30-YR 4.2 to 3.6, but failed to spark a defining upward trend in US MBA Mortgage application. With the violent move in USTY as of recent forcing the 30-YR back to 4.2% or back to Jan’16 levels, there is a slight tick of in applications, but nothing noticeable. To say the least, the industry is tightening, which will lead to a re-pricing of assets.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-23_07-05-26.png

Each time the bond market has crashed ie UST Yields spike in the last few decades, a financial crisis has always been around the corner. Seems like the crisis will involve dollar shortage coupled with EM stress on a systemic magnitude unless the Fed cools the Trajectory of the dollar via backtracking on rate hikes, but it seems like that won’t happen in December. So prepare for turmoil.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.03.49 AM.png

According to Michael Synder, “We Are Being Set Up For Higher Interest Rates, A Major Recession And A Giant Stock Market Crash. Since Donald Trump’s victory on election night we have seen the worst bond crash in 15 years. Global bond investors have seen trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out since November 8th, and analysts are warning of another tough week ahead. The general consensus in the investing community is that a Trump administration will mean much higher inflation, and as a result investors are already starting to demand higher interest rates. Unfortunately for all of us, history has shown that higher interest rates always cause an economic slowdown. And this makes perfect sense, because economic activity naturally slows down when it becomes more expensive to borrow money. The Obama administration had already set up the next president for a major recession anyway, but now this bond crash threatens to bring it on sooner rather than later”.

Mainstream Fox News reports Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus dreams are hitting roadblocks from the GOP. ATH US-equity indexes pricing in fiscal stimulus could loose momentum.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.07.04 AM.png

SocGen: “Over the next 12 months little will happen on the fiscal side in the US as any stimulus is slated for 2018/19”

With the recent push back of Trump’s fiscal stimulus plan by GOP lawmakers, we believe the marginal productivity of debt has declined to such a low level, which may render his fiscal push inoperable to produce the needed growth. We’ll hint at saying Trump is the king of bankruptcies, and there’s a reason why the shadow government allowed him to retain the highest seat of the land. More hints if you look at the debt.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-23_14-54-57.png

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions deteriorate in a rolling top fashion tagging 1H15 levels.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.51.52 AM.png

In the US, Credit and High Yield negative diverge the SPX500 index despite positive correlation throughout the FY’16 timeframe.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.53.56 AM.png

Even US Financials are ignoring the negative divergence in Credit and High Yield.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.54.56 AM.png

US Financials widely ignore US30Y-US05Y curve

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.01.01 AM.png

Trumpflation induces massive bond selloff with USTY spike inducing US equities upside.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.00.42 AM.png

Risk parity strategy severely under pressure against the SPX500 index. Will the bond selloff rollover into US equity deleveraging ?

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-21_07-59-28.png

Curious here with the Libor continue making new highs as the EU financials are under pressure.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.05.34 AM.png

Libor is spiking replicating the same funding stress that occurred last rate hike.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-25_08-20-44.png

Negative divergence in EM Stocks verse DM Stocks

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.13.31 AM.png

Buying equities today is buying the tops according to NYHGH at 400. Review Precedents-

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-22_08-14-42.png

FAW FTSE All World Index risks a double top with negatively diverging RSI 14 count. Death cross is imminent if technical advancements are not seen.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-22_08-16-25.png

Starting in August’16, OPEC started its daily-weekly headlines to prop WTI above >40. The ploy has worked along with exports increasing in the OPEC organization. Prior session, the OPEC headline start demand line starting in August was rejected.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.27.29 AM.png

WTI daily timeframe FY’16 demand line has violated to the downside. Recent OPEC headlines attempted to spring price back up over the demand line, but a rejection followed quickly. The P shape distribution on the y-axis is the most concerning due to a failed OPEC deal will result in unlocking of overhead supply.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-25 at 8.22.57 AM.png

SPX500 daily timeframe with GANN on August’15 low. 2×1 to 3×1 sandwich channel.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.36.07 AM.png

SPX monthly timeframe GANN 1987 low. 2×1 GANN has been responsible for various market tops.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.38.31 AM.png

Bonus:

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,639 adults online showed 63 percent did not plan to shop on Black Friday this year.

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-43-47-am

and there it is…

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-42-45-am

Search Term: “Black Friday Sales” peaked along time ago….

2016-11-24_10-59-50

Just think about it, the 50th percentile wage gap has had no growth since the early 70s

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-46-17-am

Bottom 90% distribution of wealth peaked in the late 1980s and has been declining ever since.

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-47-26-am

Obamacare tax is pillaging the middle class via monthly premiums increase

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-48-30-am

2016-11-25_08-49-34

The fun is just getting started. Wait until the US-Unemployment Rate vs. 12-m sma triggers a bullish crossover its coming, and the recession is on the horizon. Prepare now.

screen-shot-2016-11-25-at-8-50-31-am

 

 

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Morning Note November 24, 2016
Thursday, November 24, 2016

 SPX Flat, Dollar Flat, Crude Flat

US Markets are experiencing a holiday session leaving global markets subdued. Overnight in the Asian session, /ES and /CL rotated in a bracket with a high positive correlation. The US-Bond market is closed as well as halting yet again another acceleration in treasury selling. The Forex market is alive and well, as the US Dollar shortage continues tagging a 14-year high—- wreaking havoc on emerging growth countries and sending Asian currencies to 7 year lows.

Starting in Forex, the global dollar shortage sent DXY to 14 years highs in the 101.90s range plunging the EUR/USD to the 1.05 handle. The strong dollar theme has instilled chaos in emerging market currencies, bonds, and equities. Asian currencies are at the weakest level in 7 years with the CNH/USD and CNY/USD in a constant negative trajectory.

On the subject of global dollar shortage Deutsche Bank AG strategists George Saravelos and Robin Winkler recently wrote, “We expect de-globalization to negatively impact financial markets, particularly the availability of dollar funding. Reserve manager commercial bank dollar deposits are falling. Central bank swap lines can no longer be taken for granted. The potential repatriation of more than a trillion dollars of offshore U.S. corporate earnings could aggravate dollar funding pressure further.”

Analyst Izabella Kaminski recently wrote in the Financial Times Alphaville column that a global dollar shortage “stands to become the most significant destabilizing force in recent times and the most unanticipated global tail-risk.”

Headline Stress in Global Currency-

  • Sweden’s Riksbank eyes digital currency – Financial Times
  • India Scraps 500 and 1,000 Rupee Bank Notes Overnight – BBC
  • India banks overwhelmed after rupee withdrawal – Financial Times
  • Zimbabwe’s Currency Hail Mary – Foreign Policy
  • Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends – SWIFT
  • Global dollar credit: Links to U.S. monetary policy and leverage – BIS
  • The bank/capital market nexus goes global – Hyun Song Shin
  • How Donald Trump Could Exacerbate A Global Dollar Shortage – Bloomberg
  • Dollar shortage alert – Izabella Kaminska – Financial Times Alphaville

Asian Dollar Index plunges to 7 year low verse the dollar.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.50.52 AM.png

US Dollar monthly timeframe, .618 upside penetrated prior session roughly in the 101.70 handle. Our new target is .764 in the 109 handle unless the Fed reverses the trade.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 5.26.56 PM.png

Dollar demand has crushed China’s CNH and CNY with modest outflows in China pouring into BTC/USD. Devaluations of this magnitude have been responsible for global turmoil and massive outflows in the past, but currently decoupled.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 8.06.59 AM.png

Across the pond in Europe, EURO Currency Volatility Index has exploded upwards with an imminent gold cross on the daily. Market participants are preparing for Italy’s Referendum.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:2016-11-24_08-10-39.png

Despite the global dollar shortage, US rate hike probabilities for December’16 are >93% inducing more dollar demand and inciting a panic in global bonds.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 7.19.35 AM.png

More bad news in Emerging Markets where bonds are being slaughtered on the back of a dollar shortage making dollar denominated debt harder to service. Hello pending crisis?

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 8.17.00 AM.png

The bond selloff is not limited to emerging growth. This has become a systemic issue across all major global bond markets. Notice the recent equity decoupling from bonds?—Probably won’t end well.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.05.59 AM.png

Meanwhile, UST10Y Treasury Yield <TNX> has surged 82.98% (1.095) from the 1.32 low  post Brexit. On a side-note, Ray Dalio Warns A 1% Rise In Yields Would Lead To Trillions In Losses and already the UST10Y has risen +1.095. Many think Trumpflation has been responsible for the sudden surge in UST Yields, but that is not the case. Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus speculation was merely the accelerant of momentum over the 1.88 level. What started the trend was global central bank yield curve steepening and tapering first presented by the BOJ in late September 2016. Our upside projections in <TNX> UST10Y is 25.01 or 2.501.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-24_08-25-57.png

MBA Mortgage Applications +5.5, vs -9.2% Purchases +18.8% Refise -3.1%. In 2016, the FED pushed down 30-YR 4.2 to 3.6, but failed to spark a defining upward trend in US MBA Mortgage application. With the violent move in USTY as of recent forcing the 30-YR back to 4.2% or back to Jan’16 levels, there is a slight tick of in applications, but nothing noticeable. To say the least, the industry is tightening, which will lead to a re-pricing of assets.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-23_07-05-26.png

Miami home prices and values are in the midst of an echo bubble, which originally formed in 2008. The same environment of overbuilding has plagued the market once again. I mean, have you been to Brickell in the past few years? There is literally new construction on every street, and when I say construction, I’m talking about massive sky scrappers being built. So, nevertheless, we see an echo bubble forming in Miami with a dollar shortage plaguing foreign buyers. Notice when the dollar spikes in 2014, home prices in Miami plateau. Next to plague the market is the sudden spike in mortgage rates via treasury crash which was started by global central banks especially the BOJ steepening the yield curve not Trump and his imaginary fiscal stimulus. The most disappointing characteristic of home prices in Miami was the Fed’s ZLB emergency rates for 8 or so years couldn’t tag a double top, but only recovery roughly .618% of 2007-2008 prices.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:2016-11-22_17-48-14_01.png

Each time the bond market has crashed ie UST Yields spike in the last few decades, a financial crisis has always been around the corner. Seems like the crisis will involve dollar shortage coupled with EM stress on a systemic magnitude unless the Fed cools the Trajectory of the dollar via backtracking on rate hikes, but it seems like that won’t happen in December. So prepare for turmoil.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.03.49 AM.png

According to Michael Synder, “We Are Being Set Up For Higher Interest Rates, A Major Recession And A Giant Stock Market Crash. Since Donald Trump’s victory on election night we have seen the worst bond crash in 15 years. Global bond investors have seen trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out since November 8th, and analysts are warning of another tough week ahead. The general consensus in the investing community is that a Trump administration will mean much higher inflation, and as a result investors are already starting to demand higher interest rates. Unfortunately for all of us, history has shown that higher interest rates always cause an economic slowdown. And this makes perfect sense, because economic activity naturally slows down when it becomes more expensive to borrow money. The Obama administration had already set up the next president for a major recession anyway, but now this bond crash threatens to bring it on sooner rather than later”.

Mainstream Fox News reports Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus dreams are hitting roadblocks from the GOP. ATH US-equity indexes pricing in fiscal stimulus could loose momentum.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.07.04 AM.png

With the recent pushback of Trump’s fiscal stimulus plan by GOP lawmakers, we believe the marginal productivity of debt has declined to such a low level, which may render Trump’s fiscal push inoperable to produce the needed growth.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-23_14-54-57.png

Here is our point, it took $10 of new debt to generate just $1 in new growth. Now you see the marginal productivity of debt is in terrible condition. Too much debt, the economy has stalled.

screen-shot-2016-11-24-at-9-15-29-am

The US Economy is like an airplane stalling. The next step is to grab the yoke and drop the nose to regain control.

2016-11-24_09-12-07

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions deteriorate in a rolling top fashion tagging 1H15 levels.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.51.52 AM.png

In the US, Credit and High Yield negative diverge the SPX500 index despite positive correlation throughout the FY’16 timeframe.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.53.56 AM.png

Even US Financials are ignoring the negative divergence in Credit and High Yield.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 7.54.56 AM.png

US Financials widely ignore US30Y-US05Y curve

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.01.01 AM.png

Trumpflation induces massive bond selloff with USTY spike inducing US equities upside.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.00.42 AM.png

Risk parity strategy severely under pressure against the SPX500 index. Will the bond selloff rollover into US equity deleveraging ?

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-21_07-59-28.png

Curious here with the Libor continue making new highs as the EU financials are under pressure.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.05.34 AM.png

Negative divergence in EM Stocks verse DM Stocks

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-22 at 8.13.31 AM.png

Buying equities today is buying the tops according to NYHGH at 400. Review Precedents-

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-22_08-14-42.png

FAW FTSE All World Index risks a double top with negatively diverging RSI 14 count. Death cross is imminent if technical advancements are not seen.

Macintosh HD:private:var:folders:pc:j34sjpnn3050_5rfmpp_ds_r0000gn:T:2016-11-22_08-16-25.png

Starting in August’16, OPEC started its daily-weekly headlines to prop WTI above >40. The ploy has worked along with exports increasing in the OPEC organization. Prior session, the OPEC headline start demand line starting in August was rejected.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.27.29 AM.png

SPX500 daily timeframe with GANN on August’15 low. 2×1 to 3×1 sandwich channel.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.36.07 AM.png

SPX monthly timeframe GANN 1987 low. 2×1 GANN has been responsible for various market tops.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-11-23 at 8.38.31 AM.png

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