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Morning Note July 15, 2016

Education

Friday, July 15, 16

Global Stocks find congestion in the aftermath of Nice, France’s latest terrorist attack.  In a post Brexit Vote era, global stocks have rebounded remarkably on the backs of central bank comments, along with liquidity added to the system. Talks of money drops in Japan, has sent USDJPY +784bps move expected only as a counter wave. The Nikkei is up on the week +900bps one of the best weeks in many years. Over in China, 2Q GDP data beat estimates by +.01% coming in at 6.6%. Over in the EU, equity markets are slightly down after the terrorist attacks in France last night. EURUSD is attempting to advance well into the 1.11 handle, as GBPUSD has rejected the 1.34 level as resistance. Over in the US, Markets are flat in the wake of a large data dump Friday starting at 830am- 10am. Eyes on retail sales, manufacturing, and CPI will be of focus. Various Fed speakers will be present this evening to continue the status quo into the weekend. Long/Short dated UST Yields rebounded for record or new record lows produced on a post Brexit Vote. Number of reports have signaled with record low yields the bond market is due for a correction. Over to WTI, where our concern is in the refiners and crude products could be in a death spiral heading into the latter summer months. CRACK spreads for RBOB on the east coast and gulf coast have been negatively diverging from WTI since May timeframe signaling refiner margins are under pressure. This could lead to forced shut-ins by refiners to only increase builds on overall crude. EIA report this week signaled production in increase of US Shale as rig counts now ascending, and we wait for today’s Baker Hughes Rig Count data dump expected to increase. Looking finally ahead to rumors of

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Refiners could unleash the next deflationary wave
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