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Morning Note July 27, 2016

Education

Wed, July 27, 16

In the pre-US cash session, /ES is flat ahead of US Macro:

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, July 22 (prior -1.3%)
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, June P, est. -1.4% (prior -2.3%)
  • 8:30am Cap Goods Orders Nondefense, Ex-aircraft, June P, est. 0.2% (prior -0.4%)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales M/m, June, est. 1.2% (prior -3.7%)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories

2pm: FOMC Rate Decision

In overnight Forex, the BOJ uses media to test trial the market’s response to stimulus headlines. One headline sent the USDJPY +123bps to the mid-106 handle to only round trip after the BOJ denied reports. Simply the BOJ is feeling out the market. In other news, the DXY maintains the 97 handle ahead of today’s 2pm FOMC rate decision. With a slew of good economic news for the FED, along with a market that has not priced in a rate hike. This afternoon could be volatile. Over to EURUSD testing the 109 handle in a bearish flag since 7-24-16, along with GBPUSD in overhead resistance at 1.31 level. Major developments crossing the wires this morning of DB profits plummeting 98%. This is ahead of the EU stress test results to be released this Friday. DB in the pre-US cash session has declined -500bps on such earnings report. On Italian Banks, Monte dei Paschi is searching for fresh capital before the stress tests results. This indicates a confluence of Itilian and German banks could be under severe pressure upon stress test results later this week. Perhaps, the expansion of balance sheets by ECB and BOJ to roughly $180 bn per month signals the central banks preparedness in attempting to curb such systemic risk.

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