[stock-ticker]
Beware of the Kamikaze BOJ

Beware of the Kamikaze BOJ, who is looking for a crisis. 

2016-06-03_18-26-36

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SPX Bullish Percentage Indicator signal memory ?

The SPX Bullish Percentage is a breadth indicator. We’ve highlighted 2 ranges which we believe the market holds memory. 

2016-06-03_19-36-45

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AUDJPY vs. SPX Correlation

AUDJPY Serves as directional insight to Japanese equity markets. Past precedents suggest strong correlation. Gaining an insight on approximate market tops has worked on two separate occasions from DotCom to 2008. AUDJPY has negatively diverged SPX500 since 4Q14. Negative divergence suggest probability is musher higher of SPX500 drawdown due to AUDJPY severe negative divergence.

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Morning Note June 3, 2016

Education

 
Fri, June 3, 16  
08:30 ET Update:
[Stockboardasset] S&P futures -50bps
08:30 ET Update:
[Stockboardasset] Nikkei   -163bps

 

 

May non-farm payrolls +38K vs 160K expected

  • Prior non-farm payrolls 160K (revised to 123K)
  • Two-month net revision -59K
  • Unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.9% expected
  • Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.8% prior
  • Average hourly earnings 0.2% m/m vs +0.2% m/m exp
  • Prior avg hourly earnings revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
  • Average hourly earnings 2.5% y/y vs +2.5% y/y exp
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 exp
  • Prior avg weekly hours revised to 34.4 from 34.5
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Oil Report June 2, 2016

 

June 2 16 Oil Note-

­Latest EIA oil inventories -1366k vs. -2500k exp. Prior session API 2.35mm barrel build as there continues to be a wide margin of error of data sets.

EIA

  • Prior -4226k
  • Last nights API +2350k
  • Cushing -704k vs -623k exp. Prior -649k
  • Gasoline -1492k vs -350k exp. Prior 2043k
  • Distillates -1255k vs -1000k exp. Prior -1284k
  • Refinery utilisation 0.10% vs 0.50% exp. Prior -0.80%
  • Crude production 8.735mbpd vs 8.767mbpd
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WTI’s 1999 GANN Worth Watching

WTI next draw down imminent ? 

Counter wave 4 resistance 3×1 GANN from 1999 attempting reverse polarity. Counter wave 4 length v shape recovery from 26 level to 50 measurement +90%. Probability of continuation of counter wave or inducing 5th wave depends on 3×1 GANN 47-50 range. Rejection of GANN would induce 5th wave draw down to low 30s and could even test 26 again. If reverse polarity is successful 60 2x top could be seen. Due to fundamentals of overcapacity, macro data deterioration, and strong DXY. Our view is downside risks outweigh upside potential unless more artificial supply disruptions occur. Speculators run WTI market with central banks who are in desperate need for reflation.

Make a bet-> Pay the Nigerian Delta Avengers an exchange rate of .0050 USD to 1 Naira and you got yourself a terrorist cell. Check the NDA out on Social media. It smells of Saudi’s hired a PR firm just like they did in Syria for ISIS.

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Mover Over Obama’s Elkhart, Indiana. ISM NYC collapses to 7YR Lows

2016-06-02_11-19-03

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Morning Note June 2, 2016

Education

 
Thur, June 2, 16  
08:30 ET Update:
[Stockboardasset] S&P futures flat
08:30 ET Update:
[Stockboardasset] Nikkei   -163bps

 

 

[Stockboardasset] Nikkei   -163bps

 

 

The ECB leaves main interest unchanged at 0.0%. On June 8, the EU will start making purchases under its corporate sector purchasing program. It’s not often that consensus will nail this morning’s ADP employed 173k vs. 173k prior 156k. Markets are in fragile mode again as DXY sustains the

95-96 handle. AUDJPY is testing 1Q lows which signals stress in Asia. USDJPY found little support pared losses with Nikkei. OPEC Meeting is today as comments are plentiful prior session. WTI is at the 48 handle under pressure as the market awaits EIA data. Prior session, API reports a build, and seasonally that should not happen. Market continues to be in overcapacity. Prior session US Markets levitate due to RTRS OPEC headlines, then debunked hours later. It’s interesting how headlines are placed on technical levels for equities to jawbone. Conditional liquidity plagues US markets and global markets which will amplify price action. We welcome volatility as the status quo of reflation since mid-Feb will be hard to maintain heading into the summer months.

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America’s Farmland has an infection

America’s Farmland has an infection

2016-06-01_21-22-31

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China’s Economic Crisis

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