Central banks have done most of what they could do says OECD

OECD’s Gurria hinting that central banks are running low on options

  • You have to move towards structural reforms
  • We’ve run out of easy fixes for economies
  • OECD forecasts 3% global growth
  • Conditions are tough but not forecasting recession
  • Trade is very sluggish
  • Investment is running at half the speed it should be
  • We should be worried about deflation
  • We’ve been focusing on supply side of inflation, have to look at demand side also
  • Oil hasn’t found stability, we’re still going to see volatility
  • UK should stay firmly in Europe, is much strong as part of Europe


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FMD Capital-> Bear Market Rally

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Corporate Defaults Spike to ’09 Levels

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Morning Note March 29, 2016

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Morning Note-  

Tues, March 29, 16

08: 45 ET         Update: [Stockboardasset] S&P futures -30bps

08:45 ET          Update: [Stockboardasset] Nikkei -62ps

08:45 ET          Update: [Stockboardasset]FTSE100 -89bps DAX -57bps


The Rollercoaster of this quarter is nearing an end on paper, but don’t think the ride is over yet. Yellen speaks at 11:30am ET today. Goldman Sachs Cuts 1QGDP Estimate to 1.7% from 2.1% citing revisions to the real consumer spending. Atlanta FED revises 1Q GDP -57% to .6%. Earnings recession is in full swing expecting a dismal 1Q, as equities continue a rich valuation. HY (HYG, JNK, CORP) decoupling from equities signaling stress is returning. 30 energy companies coupon’s are due next month, which should reopen the discussion of HY Defaults. The US is in a tightening cycle this comes at no surprise. US Default Rates have surpassed Lehman Levels. An interesting piece by Wells Fargo: 25% probability of US Recession in the next 6 months. The use of Non-GAAP has increased since 2014 as Warren Buffet, Factset, and even the SEC have spoke out against such practices.

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Is the end of the month long Equity Rally a H&S Pattern?

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Default Debt Woes shall be Resurrected in April

HY such as HYG and JNK negatively diverge from equities suggest stress is returning. There is no getting around the US is in a tightening cycle, so get use to excess flush. 1Q16 US Default surpassed Lehman Crisis with energy and materials leading. Technology, and perhaps even biotech is next, especially after VRX debacle. April will be a wild month, as 30 energy companies have coupons due. Below is the recent divergence of HY vs. equities.

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Deceptive and Irresponsible.


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Stay in Touch With the Rally via Pitchforks

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We’re back at Jan’16 worries according to FRED


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Unwanted Stress in Cleveland

Unwanted Stress in Cleveland 

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We’re searching for the problem, and arrived here: 

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