SPX trades on June 2014 EPS estimates of 2100 as the market is expecting a multiple expansion. Current day EPS estimates are at 1500. Fundamentals are truly wide from reality, and as we saw AAPL miss on revenue it should be an awakening to the market.
VIX is constructing a notable geometrical formation called a right angle descending broadening wedge. The main question will the central bank trading desks i.e. Citadel let this geometrical formation construct. A Fidelity analyst on BBG this morning hit the trading thesis of today’s market correctly. Its about speculating on the next asset or commodity a central bank will target.
The White House could release a set of documents in June indicating the house of SAUD at direction involvement in 9/11. In response, the house of SAUD said their government would liquidating $750 billion in US Assets upon release.
We notice an interesting reoccurrence of cycle peaks of the job market and specific headlines released by Gov’t/FED via wire houses. Two precedents dating back to the Dot Com and 2008 peak in the job markets saw high distribution of headlines such as “best job market: in years. The FED is merely fulfilling it’s dual mandate protecting the economy from the next shock.
Underneath the Hood of the US Economic V8 engine, we continue to see misfires. US Companies continue to deepen into an earnings recession. Global Economies are moving in sync with a slowdown of the US Economy. TED Spread is signaling credit risk, which correlates to equity repricing. We caution equity exposure until the earnings recession can be properly addressed, and not called transitory.
The FED and US Gov’t will have a difficult time blaming weather ahead of faltering US Economic Slow down. In fact, according to ATL FED GDP Now, their 1Q16 estimate stands at .3% massive revision from Feb’16. Something is terribly wrong, and the markets will correct themselves.