[stock-ticker]
4 Week MA of Initial Claims

4 Week MA of Initial Claims

Notice what happens to the smoothed data on the onset of an economic contraction. 2016-03-31_13-24-25 2016-03-31_13-24-44 2016-03-31_13-25-10

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Multi decade comparison of EPS SPX

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Shanghai Copper Inventories Sky Rocket (Crude Story)

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Precedent 2-3 months for markets to realign

Precedent 2-3 months for markets to realign with valuations 

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IBB Crossroads on a GANN Road

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Morning Note March 31, 2016

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Morning Note-

Thur, March 31, 16

08:45 ET                                           Update: [Stockboardasset] S&P futures Flat

08:45 ET                                           Update: [Stockboardasset] Nikkei -136bps

 

The Crude Awakening will be not just be WTI reverting back to a mean prior to the Shanghai Accord, but SPX will go back to fundamentals. SPX has undergone 3 consecutive quarters of decline in earnings commonly referred to as an earnings recession. 1Q16 is set to report with buybacks on hold could put an end to this rally unless earnings improve. According to Factset, negative earnings for 1Q is forecasted marking the 4th consecutive quarter Y/Y since 4Q08. SPX Price to ebitda just hit the highest ever. Overnight, we saw S&P downgrade the Chinese outlook to negative from stable, due to debt load. PBOC made a statement by squeezing Yuan shorts the most since 2005. Reuters reported OPEC production increase this month contrary to the narrative advancing WTI/BRENT from FEB lows. WTI fundamental imbalances have only gotten worse since Feb as inventories continue to build. With another surge in inventory, along with precedents supporting liquidation after such surge, we can only guess what happens next.

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HY Still Heading South

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IBB in Market Clearing Stage 1/1 PT 117

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75POC PT AAPL REVERSION

75POC PT AAPL REVERSION 

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VIX 2X1 Testing. Could bear near push to 3×1

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