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Fri Sept 02, 16

 

MISS: NONFARM PAYROLLS

The August Payrolls Report will be an important guideline for September’s rate hike probability. Here are the expectations by bank:

  • JPM +150k
  • Deutche Bank +160k
  • UBS +160K
  • Goldman +165k
  • Citi +170k
  • Wells +176k
  • BofA 180k
  • MS +185k
  • UBS +200k
  • Barclays +200k
  • Nomura +200k
  • CS +200k
  • SocGen +225k

August tends to be weakest month relative to the rest of the year for NFP.

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NFP MISS: Highlights of the August US non-farm payrolls report:

August payrolls +151K, Exp. +180K

  • Prior 255K. Revised to
  • Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% exp. Prior 4.9%
  • Average hourly earnings 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% exp m/m.
  • Prior average hourly earnings 0.3%
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.8% prior
  • Two month net revision: -1K

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Immediately the dollar sells on the miss enabling Dollar linked currencies to erupt.

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Dollar sell has boosted commodities such as energy and metals. Gold and Silver moving up.

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UST Yields are crushed on the NFP miss, but since the Dollar is crushed this has enabled WTI to flourish and we can see SPX Algos are linked to oil today.

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SoNews: Solar Storm, Earthquakes, and Hurricane

The earth is taking a complete system surge from the developing coronal hole facing earth. Such activity of system surges is triggering earthquakes. Technological and health effects are in play today.

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Spaghetti Models and Tropics Maps:

Trajectory of tropical storm Hermine is set to creep up the east coast into the weekend arriving at Baltimore 2am Sunday. The east coast of the United States has 112.6 million in population and we caution our subscribers of economic supply disruptions if Hermine follows models with trajectories more inland. Take the needed precautions today rather than the last minute. Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 7.57.08 AM.png

3 Disturbances to maintain a vigilant eye.

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60 minute timeframe w/ 200sma. Is price above or below 200sma?

Above: VIX, DXY, XLF, HYG

Below: SPX, EEM, WTI, Copper

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Soft Commodities are experiencing a massive clear event. Waiting for a bottom. Review Stockboardasset.com for the Grand Solar Minimum Trade.

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Technical-

In the pre-US Cash session price rotates +579 bps premium verse the point of control at 2048 in the upper bi modal. The market has auctioned +1000bps in a post-Brexit vote era on declining participants. Advertisements of the auction have been in attempt by central banks, but so far the average volume line does not reflect an abundance of new entrees. Price is likely to oscillate from 2166.7 to 2182 as the balance matures. Then use the balance’s extremes for hints of a directional imbalance.

Our fear is the premium verse the point of control has been decreasing in a lower high formation. This may signal the balance nears maturity thus indicating a directional imbalance is near. Driver of markets today will be how markets digest the NFP data dump.

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Bonus: SPX,Monthly’s Momentum forced rejection indicates an alarm bell is ringing. Usually forward looking.

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