Tues, Sept 06, 16


SPX Flat, Dollar Down, Crude Down

While Wall Street was on holiday prior session, the oil market turned heads with headlines suggesting Saud/Russia freeze deal. WTI and Brent surged more than +500bps with gains not sustainable after the market realized it was more political jawboning via headlines. The inability to hold these gains on an illiquid day confirms the short squeeze ammo is out of juice. In fact, The Oxford Institute for Energy has a Feb’16 report titled: Russia and Opec Uneasy partners laying out argument of Saudi/Russia oil freeze deal is highly unlikely.

Looking at the session ahead:

US Event Calendar

  • 9:15pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Reno, Nev.
  • 10am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, Aug. (prior 1)
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, Aug., est. 55.0 (prior 55.5)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Sept. (prior 48.4)

In forex corner, the DXY catches a 60min 200 simple moving average support -12bps. Surprising gold and silver have been bidding since 1am. Copper regains the 60min 200 simple moving average with the expectation of near term upside, but overall copper sends a dire warning on large timeframes above a daily. Over to BTCUSD, ever since the G20 the exuberance has been nonstop attempting to clear a 60min double top at the 610 handle.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Dropbox:TechSmith:2016-09-06_08-09-52.png

UST Yields long/short are down in the Pre US cash session. UST10Y 1.602 -21bps. German Gov’t DE10Y and EURUSD are down this morning with the DAX positively diverging. Over in the U.K., from the 5am-7am est. Gov’t Yields have caught a bid in sync with the GBPUSD Pair. FTSE100 is mute. Bottom right of the graphic is the DXY and Gold crossover depicting the market may favor gold this week.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Dropbox:TechSmith:2016-09-06_08-11-15.png

Three timeframes including UST Yields, WTI, and the SPX. Arrows depict WTI sell pressuring from the 2am hour.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Dropbox:TechSmith:2016-09-06_08-18-20.png

Space Weather, Climate, Quakes, Juno | S0 News

Sept-Nov Above Average Temperatures. It’s 2013 all over again, with the cold will shift to the east heading into Dec. Of course this will be a disrupter to the seasonally prone retailors.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 8.23.23 AM.png

Get ready the next cycle will surprise you.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:2016-09-06_08-22-44.png

Spaghetti Models and Tropics Maps:

Tri-Fecta of disturbances. Hermine creeps up the east coast.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 8.28.26 AM.png

Guidance released on Hermine

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 8.29.30 AM.png

60 minute timeframe w/ 200sma. Is price above or below 200sma?

Above: Copper, EEM, Copper, DXY, XLF, HYG, SPX

Below: VIX, WTI

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Dropbox:TechSmith:2016-09-06_08-30-57.png


Soft Commodities are experiencing a massive clear event. Waiting for a bottom. Review Stockboardasset.com for the Grand Solar Minimum Trade.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-08-29 at 8.20.16 PM.png


In the pre-US Cash session price rotates +646 bps premium verse the point of control at 2048 in the upper bi modal. The market has auctioned +1000bps in a post-Brexit vote era on declining participants. Advertisements of the auction have been in attempt by central banks, but so far the average volume line does not reflect an abundance of new entrees. Price is likely to oscillate from 2166.7 to 2182 as the balance matures. Then use the balance’s extremes for hints of a directional imbalance.

Our fear is the premium verse the point of control has been decreasing in a lower high formation. This may signal the balance nears maturity thus indicating a directional imbalance is near. Driver of markets today Fed Speak + DXY + WTI.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 8.34.12 AM.png

Bonus: SPX,Monthly’s Momentum forced rejection indicates an alarm bell is ringing. Usually forward looking.

Macintosh HD:Users:alastairwilliamson:Desktop:Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 8.31.32 AM.png